Bitcoin ETF turnover passes $11 billion USD but both the crypto community and TradFi are confused

The trading volume of the new listed Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has passed over US$11 billion, or US$115 billion, in four trading days. This is an interest that the ETF market as such has not seen the makings of. Nevertheless, both crypto investors and traditional Fiat investors continue to be confused, asking: But how big is the net demand and purchase of Bitcoin really?

January 18, 2024
Bitcoin ETF turnover passes $11 billion USD but both the crypto community and TradFi are confused

From the editors: This article was published early Thursday morning (Norwegian time). During the day, we have gained access to new information, and have therefore published a new and updated article under the title: “Record High Trading in Listed Bitcoin Products — $463 Million Net Capital Flow to Bitcoin Purchases”

These are questions that we have thoroughly reviewed in the latest edition of the Unleash Insight newsletter. This newsletter contains both news, analysis and commentary on the ETF approval, including an ETF Q&A.

Why is it hard to get an overview?

There are several explanations that investors, regardless of which camp one belongs to, have difficulties in getting an overview. The first is that while the crypto exchanges are continuously open both around the clock and on holidays, the traditional exchanges are up from 09:30 - 16:00 - then only on weekdays

The second explanation for the confusion is that although the capital of ETF funds should be invested 100% directly in Bitcoin, this does not happen immediately, but is usually spread over 1-2 trading days after the funds have received their deposits.

The third problem is the delay inherent in both settlement and reporting, which means that the numbers shared, or as is speculated, on X/Twitter, are almost never in sync.

Selling pressure and moving ETF shares

The fourth challenge is that many Grayscale investors who have now finally converted their fund shares into shares in an ETF are choosing to sell out of Grayscale. In addition to posing a selling pressure on the Bitcoin exchange rate, this also makes it even harder to get a real, net and real-time view of what the ETFs have contributed in terms of new demand for Bitcoins.

Another challenge is that part of the capital going into the new US ETFs appears to be coming from other Bitcoin-related funds. It has been reported that some have exchanged their investments in European ETPs with US ETFs. Also, interest in ETFs, based on Bitcoin futures, which were approved a couple of years ago, has dropped significantly now that one can buy an ETF anchored in Bitcoin spot.

Bitcoin interest is at a record high

No matter how you interpret the numbers, there is no doubt that interest after investing in Bitcoin in a regulated way is record-breaking. The trading volume of the new Bitcon ETFs to date, well 11 billion USD after four days, already exceeds what 500 newly listed ETFs managed to generate in revenue throughout 2023.

European CoinShares, which is in the process of establishing a record of the total turnover of Bitcoin-based ETFs, regardless of geography and category, reported on Monday January 15th that the previous week's global trading volume amounted to $17.5 billion. According to CoinShares, this was the largest figure ever recorded, while the weekly average in 2022, for example, stood at $2 billion.

When does the fog ease?

What, then, is the net inflow of new capital for the purchase of Bitcoin? Due to the challenges described earlier in this article, various estimates are available. CoinShares estimated that the first week the ETFs could be bought and sold in the United States added $1.18 billion in net fresh capital. This week, gross trading volume in the US has declined slightly, on top of which Grayscale clients have continued their sale of fund shares. Therefore, experts' estimates vary, while all report that, cumulatively, there has been a positive capital inflow from the entire ETF sector to the purchase of Bitcoin.

However, there is no doubt that the confusion and uncertainty about the real impact of the ETF approval, in the short term, is helping to push the Bitcoin price. What will happen when the fog eases and the speech of the numbers becomes clearer? That's the first question the Twitterate asks itself. While the second, important question, often asked with hope in your voice, is: When will we be able to see that the sales pressure from Grayscale subsides?

Bitcoin ETF turnover passes $11 billion USD but both the crypto community and TradFi are confused

The trading volume of the new listed Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has passed over US$11 billion, or US$115 billion, in four trading days. This is an interest that the ETF market as such has not seen the makings of. Nevertheless, both crypto investors and traditional Fiat investors continue to be confused, asking: But how big is the net demand and purchase of Bitcoin really?

January 18, 2024

From the editors: This article was published early Thursday morning (Norwegian time). During the day, we have gained access to new information, and have therefore published a new and updated article under the title: “Record High Trading in Listed Bitcoin Products — $463 Million Net Capital Flow to Bitcoin Purchases”

These are questions that we have thoroughly reviewed in the latest edition of the Unleash Insight newsletter. This newsletter contains both news, analysis and commentary on the ETF approval, including an ETF Q&A.

Why is it hard to get an overview?

There are several explanations that investors, regardless of which camp one belongs to, have difficulties in getting an overview. The first is that while the crypto exchanges are continuously open both around the clock and on holidays, the traditional exchanges are up from 09:30 - 16:00 - then only on weekdays

The second explanation for the confusion is that although the capital of ETF funds should be invested 100% directly in Bitcoin, this does not happen immediately, but is usually spread over 1-2 trading days after the funds have received their deposits.

The third problem is the delay inherent in both settlement and reporting, which means that the numbers shared, or as is speculated, on X/Twitter, are almost never in sync.

Selling pressure and moving ETF shares

The fourth challenge is that many Grayscale investors who have now finally converted their fund shares into shares in an ETF are choosing to sell out of Grayscale. In addition to posing a selling pressure on the Bitcoin exchange rate, this also makes it even harder to get a real, net and real-time view of what the ETFs have contributed in terms of new demand for Bitcoins.

Another challenge is that part of the capital going into the new US ETFs appears to be coming from other Bitcoin-related funds. It has been reported that some have exchanged their investments in European ETPs with US ETFs. Also, interest in ETFs, based on Bitcoin futures, which were approved a couple of years ago, has dropped significantly now that one can buy an ETF anchored in Bitcoin spot.

Bitcoin interest is at a record high

No matter how you interpret the numbers, there is no doubt that interest after investing in Bitcoin in a regulated way is record-breaking. The trading volume of the new Bitcon ETFs to date, well 11 billion USD after four days, already exceeds what 500 newly listed ETFs managed to generate in revenue throughout 2023.

European CoinShares, which is in the process of establishing a record of the total turnover of Bitcoin-based ETFs, regardless of geography and category, reported on Monday January 15th that the previous week's global trading volume amounted to $17.5 billion. According to CoinShares, this was the largest figure ever recorded, while the weekly average in 2022, for example, stood at $2 billion.

When does the fog ease?

What, then, is the net inflow of new capital for the purchase of Bitcoin? Due to the challenges described earlier in this article, various estimates are available. CoinShares estimated that the first week the ETFs could be bought and sold in the United States added $1.18 billion in net fresh capital. This week, gross trading volume in the US has declined slightly, on top of which Grayscale clients have continued their sale of fund shares. Therefore, experts' estimates vary, while all report that, cumulatively, there has been a positive capital inflow from the entire ETF sector to the purchase of Bitcoin.

However, there is no doubt that the confusion and uncertainty about the real impact of the ETF approval, in the short term, is helping to push the Bitcoin price. What will happen when the fog eases and the speech of the numbers becomes clearer? That's the first question the Twitterate asks itself. While the second, important question, often asked with hope in your voice, is: When will we be able to see that the sales pressure from Grayscale subsides?